With the NBA draft on July 29th fast approaching, I have finished my scouting and have settled in on my top 5 prospects in this year's class.
This isn't me predicting which team will draft what player due to fit or circulating reports, this is simply who I think are the 5 best players in the draft when you scale their abilities to the NBA.
5. Scottie Barnes, F, Florida State University
Measurements : 6'9'' , 227 lbs.
College Stats : 10.3 PTS, 4.0 REB, 4.1 AST
Most scouts and draft boards have had G-League Ignite forward, Jonathan Kuminga, slotted in at this slot, but he simply has too many holes in his game and questions about his motor have driven me off Kuminga island.
On the other hand, I have been surprisingly impressed by Scottie Barnes. Barnes projects as the perfect modern age forward. Barnes has great lateral quickness at his size and is the most versatile defensive prospect in the class , with legit ability to guard positions 1-5 in the NBA. Scottie is also a very good passer, and that paired with his serviceable handle may allow Scottie to play spot PG minutes down the line. He also has an incredible motor, you will rarely seem Barnes seem lethargic or disengaged on the floor.
The biggest thing preventing Barnes from being higher is his lack of scoring. Barnes really doesn't have any way to create his own offense consistently. Barnes is serviceable but it isn't good enough for him to get by his defender and create a slashing threat. Most of his self created offense at FSU came from post-ups, but he lacks great footwork and just used his strength to overwhelm guys, something that will definitely not work in the NBA. The biggest hole in Scottie's game however is his jumpshot , he shot just 27% from three in college on 1.7 attempts per game and his mechanics are completely broken.
Overall, Scottie Barnes is an incredibly versatile combo forward on both offense and defense and if he can develop into just a serviceable spot-up shooter, he can become an extremely valuable commodity on a good team with the possibility of becoming a bigger scoring threat down the line. I will not be shocked in the slightest if we look back at this draft and think Scottie Barnes should have gone in the top three.
NBA Comparison : OG Anunoby/Draymond Green
4. Jalen Suggs, G, Gonzaga
Measurements : 6'4'' , 205 lbs.
College Stats : 14.4 PTS, 5.3 REB, 4.5 AST
Jalen Suggs was the star of the NCAA March Madness tournament, making incredible play after incredible play, capped of by him hitting arguably the greatest shot in Final Four History.
Suggs has great burst in transition, and that paired with his incredible defensive rebounding rate makes him a one man fast break, with the ability to go coast to coast in the blink of an eye. Suggs is also the best transition passer in this draft, making incredible pitch ahead passes with regularity like a quarterback . Suggs is also a gifted passer in the half-court and a decisive playmaker in the pick-and-roll . Suggs biggest strength right now is his physical strength, where can dip his shoulder and just move defenders out of the way on his way to the basket.
Suggs is also a very solid on-ball defender and gives consistent effort on that end. He is even more impressive as an off-ball defender, where he anticipates plays like a defensive back and comes up with steals or deflections with regularity, I was also impressed by his weakside rim protection at times.
Suggs has one of the most confusing shooting reports I have ever seen. Suggs was an unstoppable pull up shooter at Gonzaga, averaging 1.1 points per possession on off the dribble jumpers , which ranked third in the nation. On the other hand, he averaged just 0.9 points per possession on spot-up attempts, shooting just 29%. Judging by his mechanics and quick release, I would believe that the 29% on spot-ups is something he will be able to clear up and turn that into a strength in the NBA
The biggest concerns with Suggs are his handle and leaping ability. Suggs handle is very basic and he struggles to shake defenders to gain an advantage . When he does gain an advantage, Suggs is unable to jump off of one foot and finish and he often finds himself jumping into rim protectors with nowhere to go.
Overall, Suggs has a lot of positives on both offense and defense, making me confident that he will be a good starting point guard in this league for a very longtime. I am very split on his upside, his handle might limit him from ever becoming an All-NBA player but some part of me believes that his pull-up shooting can overcome that.
NBA Comparison : Jrue Holiday/ Jamal Murray
3. Jalen Green , G, G-League Ignite
Measurements : 6'5'' , 180 lbs.
College Stats : 17.9 PTS, 4.1 REB, 2.8 AST
The first thing that jumps off the screen at you while watching Jalen Green is his jaw-dropping athleticism. He has incredible north-south speed, unique acceleration and god-gifted jumping ability. These tools allow green to be a force whilst attacking the basket, he can get by his man at will and he is an incredible leaper in space. Green is also a sensational shot creator, flowing into stepbacks and sidesteps with amazing fluidity .
Green had also turned himself into a pretty amazing shooter, shooting 36.5% from three on 5.7 attempts are game. That percentage may not jump off the page at you but when you his film and realize that most of his attempts are self-created off the dribble shots, that percentage seems way more impressive.
My biggest concern with Green is his passing, or lack there off. He has limited passing vision and lacks the ability to make advanced passes in screening actions. He often missed the weakside corner and the roll man on plays, and when he tried to fit the pass through these tight windows his delivery was off the mark more often than not.
Green was a solid on-ball defender, giving effort to stay infront of his man and learning to trust his backside help. However, his slight frame often led to players just discarding him on their drives to the basket. His off-ball defense is a serious concern, he missed rotations with regularity and was often caught napping.
Overall, I believe that Jalen Green is going to be a guaranteed 20 ppg in the NBA and I believe that he will be do it efficiently. He certainly needs to get stronger to be able to finish through contact, but I am confident that will come with time. However, I am lower on Green's absolute apex upside due to his passing limitations and don't believe he will be able to uphold a top 10 offense by himself.
NBA Comparison : Zach Lavine/Bradley Beal
2. Cade Cunningham, G/F, OSU
Measurements : 6'8'' , 220 lbs.
College Stats : 20.1 PTS, 6.2 REB, 3.5 AST
This might come as a shock to many, as Cade has been regarded as the consensus number one in this class since he was 16 years old, but allow me to explain.
Cunningham is one of the most complete prospects I have ever seen. He is an incredible 3 level scorer, mixing in perimeter shooting and putting pressure on the rim at an extremely intelligent level. Cade turned into a great shooter at OSU, shooting 41% on some really different attempts.
Also don't let the low assist number fool you, Cade was a very good passer at OSU. He often made the right decision but his teammates just missed the shot. However, I don't think he is a phenomenal passer , his passes lack velocity and often seem like slow lob passes across the court which allow the defense to recover.
Cunningham also has incredible size and positional versatility, I think he will able to play 4 positions at the next level which is a great value add when building a roster around him,
Where I am not as high on Cade is his handle, is handle seems loose and often gets way from him. Much like Suggs, he struggles to pull off combos to shake his defender and often leads him into bad spots. His handle was the primary reason why he had an astronomically high turnover rate in college, recording more turnovers than assists. Cade is also a mediocre athlete who lacks burst to blow by his defender, he often struggled to even get by bigs on switches, which further emphasizes his lack of a creative and effective handle.
Overall, Cade in my evaluation is a jack of all but master of none type of player, which gives him an extremely high floor and almost guarantees an All-Star level player. However , I am lower on Cunningham's upside and don't think he can be this heliocentric superstar pick and roll operator who leads you to great heights. I instead view him as an incredible secondary creator who has incredible versatility on both offense and defense.
NBA Comparison : Khris Middelton/90% of Paul George
1. Evan Mobley, C/F, USC
Measurements : 7'0'' , 215 lbs.
College Stats : 16.4 PTS, 8.7 REB, 2.4 AST
This brings us to my number one prospects, Evan Mobley. Mobley is the best bigman prospect since Anthony Davis and has amazing two way potential.
I view Mobley as a generational defensive prospect who is best suited for the modern NBA. He is an incredible rim protector, in both pick-and-roll and help side duties. He has great verticality and just inhales shots at the rim at times. Mobley is also a versatile switch defender who can switch onto guards on the perimeter where he shows great anticipation and smooth hips to deny driving lanes and uses his wingspan to contest jumpshots. Mobley is extremely thin and can therefore be vulnerable to post-ups, but with the modern NBA moving away from post-up centers that is a fairly minor concern for me. I believe Mobley has legit DPOY potential.
Mobley is also extremely versatile offensively. He has a good handle for a center and shows flashes of faking handoffs and using his dribble to get to the rim . Also, don't let low assist number fool you, Mobley is a great passer both on the move and in stationary situations. Watching Mobley's film, he seemed to make the right decision every time and was even willing to try tighter windows which is a nice value add. Mobley also projects as a good shooter down the line, he shot only 30% from three in college but he showed flashed of dribbling into pull-ups and he has a great stroke in combination with a soft touch.
However, Mobley's slight frame does propose some challenges. His inability to overpower smaller players and high center of gravity make him only a mediocre post-up threat and he can often be moved out of the way on rebounding opportunities.
Overall, I view Mobley as a generational defensive prospect who has the upside to be an offensive hub and go to scorer. Mobley' slight frame may hinder him at the NBA level , but I find it hard to believe that an NBA training program cant get him to be a lot stronger and sturdier.
I definitely think that Cade Cunningham has the higher floor, but I believe Mobley's high end outcomes are much more valuable than Cade's and since those are the players that really move the needle in the pros, I view Mobley as the better prospect.
NBA Comparison : Better rim protecting version of Chris Bosh/ worse scoring Anthony Davis
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