With the 2021 NBA season in the rearview and another year of data added to the portfolio of NBA players, it is time to revise my top 10 players on the planet. The 2021 NBA season resulted in some drastic changes in my evaluation of players due to factors such as progression, regression, players returning from significant injuries, and us getting to see certain players in different situations. Without further ado, here are my criteria for evaluating:
Offense: This is a measure of how much offensive value a player is adding to their respective team via their combination of scoring volume, scoring efficiency, and playmaking.
Defense: This is a measure of how much defensive value a player is adding to their respective team via their man defense, help defense, and defensive versatility. Defenders that provide rim protection will be favored in comparison to perimeter defenders as they prevent the most offensively efficient area of the court.
Scalability: Scalability is the concept of how well a player is able to retain value alongside better teammates. This can be achieved in a variety of ways such as off-ball shooting, cutting, extra passing, and screen setting. In today's NBA, it's practically impossible to win without other star players, so Scalability is a significant component when considering a player's championship equity
Playoff Resilience: This is simply a measure of how well a player is able to retain value from the regular season to the postseason as defenses lock-in and gameplan for your strengths and weaknesses
Final notes before we start, this exercise will be conducted under the assumption that everyone is healthy. Also, I will also be using tiers to better project my thinking. If players are in the same tier, I believe that they can be interchanged. If players are in different tiers, it's an indication of my confidence that one is most likely better than the other.
With that being said, let's get into the list:
Tier 4
10. James Harden
James Harden remains one of the league's best playmakers, creating an estimated 17.1 shots for teammates per 100 possessions (3rd in the league). He also ranks at the top of the league in % of assists coming at the rim amongst high volume playmakers, meaning that he is creating the most efficient brand of shots for his teammates as well as almost anyone in the league. Harden's scoring volume did take a significant haircut this season, but that's understandable as he is playing with two of the best scorers in the league, the thing that's more problematic for me is the drop in efficiency that came along with it. Harden went from +6 rTS% to +4 rTS% whilst falling 8.3 points/75 in scoring volume. This brings us to the topic of scalable scoring. Harden is basically a non-factor off the ball, effectively just spotting up at the hash mark. Because Harden's scoring efficiency heavily comes from isolation and free throw efficiency, this means that the drop in scoring load is also accompanied by a drop in scoring efficiency.
Harden's defense still remains a marginal negative in my estimation. Harden is a terrible isolation defender on the perimeter, regularly allowing blowbys whilst gambling for highly unlikely steals. He also completely lacks the ability to navigate a screen, which basically forces his teams to run a switching system. This can be quite harmful because it eliminates a lot of defensive scheme versatility for Harden's teams, but his bulky frame and solid post defense do allow the switching defensive system to be moderately effective.
My last minor criticism of Harden is his playoff resiliency, from 2018-20 Harden saw a sizable drop in scoring. During that stretch, Harden went from 33.75 points/75 on +6 rTS% to 29.6 points/75 on +1.7 rTS%. Harden also saw a significant drop in his playmaking, falling to 13 shots created for teammates per 100 possession in the playoffs. In my opinion, this drop in playmaking is likely due to Harden's left-hand dominance as a passer, which playoff opponents have focused on in the past and have had moderate success with.
Tier 3
9. Nikola Jokic
Jokic in my opinion is the best offensive center of all time. Jokic saw a huge jump in scoring value this season, jumping up to 28 points/75 on +7 rTS%. That increase in scoring gravity further improved his all-time playmaking as he created an estimated 15 shots for teammates per 100. Jokic's offensive impact could best be seen in his on/off metrics, with Jokic on the floor the Nuggets recorded a 122 ORTG (3 points better than the best offense in the league), and with him on the bench, that number plummeted to 107 (the third-worst offense in the league). Jokic is also a good off-ball player, making quick plays of give-and-go's and providing spacing value at the center position. The combination of these factors makes Jokic the second-best offensive player in basketball in my opinion.
Jokic is also one of the few players that gets even better in the playoffs. From 2019-21, increasing his scoring rate by almost 2 points/75 with a minimal decline in scoring efficiency. Denver's playoff offenses have also been extremely resilient in that stretch, falling only 1 point in ORTG whilst playing some great defenses in the 2020 Lakers and Jazz.
My problems with Jokic lie solely on the defensive side of the ball. Jokic is the worst rim protector of the high minute centers by a sizable margin and as a result, the Nuggets have been one of the worst teams in the league in FG% allowed at the rim. Just this past regular season, the Nuggets were 6 points/100 better on defense with Jokic being replaced by Javale McGee (an average defensive center). Over the last three postseasons, the Nuggets have recorded a 117 DRTG with Jokic on the floor, one of the worst playoff defenses in NBA history. Jokic's atrocious pick-and-roll defense is especially a target for talented guards, with guards such as Donovan Mitchell, Damian Lillard, and Chris Paul having historic offensive series against the Nuggets in quick succession. With the importance of the Center position on defense and the practically non-existent history of centers as bad as Jokic on defense playing high minutes in championship runs, it makes it somewhat challenging in my opinion to build a strong championship roster around him, despite his all-time offensive talent.
8. Anthony Davis
Anthony Davis is different from anybody we have discussed so far because I'm extremely confident that AD cannot lead a great offense and therefore can't be the primary offensive creator on the average championship roster. However, AD is a terrific secondary offensive option.
Over his postseason career, AD has averaged 27.3 points/75 on roughly +6.5 rTS%. What makes AD one of the best complimentary offensive pieces in the NBA is that he is in the conversation for the best off-ball big of all time, he can pick-and-pop, pick-and-roll and is probably the best vertical spacer in NBA history. This archetype of player can fit in nearly any team construct and besides even the most ball-dominant creators, whilst retaining all scoring value. Davis is also a good passer that can pass on the move and doesn't stall up the offense, which is a nice value add.
However, the thing that makes Anthony Davis special is his defense. AD is a perfect mix of the dominant rim protector who is also mobile enough to switch on the perimeter and contain in playoff matchups. From 2018-2020, Davis's teams have had a 107 DRTG with him on the court, one of the best marks in the NBA. During the Lakers 2020 championship run, Davis anchored a 107 DRTG, a defense that fell to a 117 DRTG when he was on the bench. In my estimation, a healthy Anthony Davis is the best defender in basketball, and that in combination with his extremely scalable scoring value, makes him the best #2 option in the NBA.
7. Joel Embiid
Joel Embiid was already in the upper echelon of scorers in the NBA, but his drastic improvements in free throw rate and midrange efficiency comfortably make him a top 5 scorer in the league in my estimation. Joel averaged 33.7 points/75 (the best mark in the league) this season on +6 rTS%. Joel continued his scoring dominance in the postseason, averaging 31 points/75 on + 5.5 rTS%., despite playing through a partially torn meniscus. Where Embiid still lacks is his ability to convert his immense scoring gravity into opportunities for teammates, he created just a mediocre 7.4 shots for teammates per 100.
However, I believe that Joel Embiid is being undersold by these metrics because he shares so much court time with Ben Simmons and that an Embiid and four shooters lineup could ascend his playmaking to new heights. Over the last three regular seasons, Embiid in minutes without Ben Simmons has posted a 115.5 ORTG (lower half of the top 10 type offense), which is extremely impressive considering that the team has zero semblance of any perimeter shot creation whatsoever. Joel did up his creation to 11.46 per 100 in minutes without Ben this season, and if that's any indicator of what's to come in the post-Simmons era, Embiid could be a lot higher on this list come next season.
I also believe that Joel Embiid is criminally underrated on defense. Embiid is an elite rim protector and post defender who walls off the rim at an elite level and is elite at conceding inefficient midrange shots in drop coverage. He is also switchable to some degree and can stick with wings on the perimeter. Over the last three postseasons, Embiid has anchored a 106 DRTG, a number that falls to 116 when he is on the bench, mostly due to opponents shooting 6% better inside the arc. Now, I don't view him as an Anthony Davis level of defender because Joel's motor and conditioning can betray him at times, but I view him just a level below that. With the defensive gap being moderate in my opinion, I believe that Joel's elite scoring and offensive floor raising give him the edge over AD.
6. Luka Doncic
Luka is a heliocentric offensive superstar, who can lead historic offenses with minimal surrounding talent. Luka in my opinion is the best playmaker in the NBA, creating 17.4 shots for teammates per 100. Luka Doncic is also a high volume scorer, averaging approximately 30 points/75 on +1.6 rTS%. Luka crazily improved on that mark in a drastic fashion in the postseason, upping his average to 35 points/75 against two of the best wing defenders in basketball. Over the last two seasons, the Mavericks have recorded a RS ORTG of 118.7 (basically the best offense in the league) with Luka on the court. Over the last two postseasons, all be in a very small sample size, the Mavericks have been able to sustain an elite offense against a defense that you can argue is the best equipped to slow them down. In the postseason, the Mavericks have recorded a 116 ORTG with Luka on the court and a 107 ORTG with him off. That is effectively the difference between a top 5 and bottom 5 offense, which points towards GOAT levels of offensive floor raising.
Luka's is largely a non-difference-maker on defense, as his speed and lack of traditional athleticism prevent him from being a playmaker on that end of the floor. His motor also often runs low on that end of the floor, meaning he really isn't adding value on that end. However, he does have quick hands, doesn't completely die on screens, and has the size to guard some limited wings. Given those, I don't believe he's taking any scheme versatility off the table either, leading me to view Luka as a neutral defender.
One criticism I do have of Luka is that he is terrible off the ball, often just wandering around the hashmark as well as being a terrible catch and shoot shooter and inactive cutter, which makes it hard for me to imagine him retaining a large portion of his value alongside another ball-dominant star.
Something that separates Luka from someone like James Harden in my opinion is their playoff resiliency. Whilst Harden might even be better in the regular season, I believe Luka's size and change of pace create a counter-heavy and versatile scoring attack that is harder to contain. Luka's ambidexterity as a passer also plays a huge role in him translating and even improving his playmaking in the postseason.
Tier 2
5. LeBron James
LeBron remains one of the league's best slashing playmakers. LeBron is one of the best finishers and drivers of the basketball the sport has ever seen, and while those skills are no longer at the GOAT level they once were, they are still elite relative to the league. LeBron this season averaged 27.5 points/75 on 3.8 rTS%. This slashing attack fueled the king's great playmaking, as he created 13.3 shots for teammates per 100. Even without Anthony Davis for the majority of the year, when James was on the floor, the Lakers recorded a 115.3 ORTG (10th best offense), which proves that whilst LeBron might no longer be at that historic level of floor raising, he can still raise the floor of any offense to comfortably above league average levels.
LeBron's defense was perhaps the most impressive part of his 2021 campaign, James continued on from his great 2021 playoffs by being a great help defender and weakside shot blocker, He was constantly engaged and gave tremendous effort as a transition defender, something we hadn't seen since 2016. Overall, I believe that LeBron was playing at a fringe all-defensive level before he went down with an ankle sprain.
LeBron's play after the injury and him having basically his worst series since the 2011 Finals did make me consider moving him down to the previous tier, but I have acted impulsively to LeBron suffering acute injuries in the past, and I need more evidence of Lebron being unable to return to his pre-injury self before I can conclusively move him down a tier.
4. Kawhi Leonard
Kawhi Leonard is one of the best offensive players on the planet and he continues to get better. Kawhi remains one of the five best scorers in all of basketball, averaging 27.5 points/75 on +4.6 rTS% in the RS. However, he continued his trend of being an all-time playoff riser by upping his scoring to historic levels in the 2021 postseason, averaging 30 points/75 on +11 rTS%!! Another aspect that makes Leonard's scoring special is that it's relatively scalable, Leonard is an excellent spot-up shooter and is great at coming off curls and rising straight up into line-drive midranges, making me confident that he could retain a good portion of his scoring value besides a ball-dominant playmaker. Another factor of Leonard's offensive repertoire that continues to improve in his time in LA is his playmaking. Leonard created an estimate of 11.2 shots for teammates per 100 and improved on that mark in the postseason. Leonard showcased improved passing vocabulary in the PNR this year, with a variety of dump-offs and even crosscourt skip passes. In his two years in LA, the Clippers have a 120.4 ORTG (about 2.5 points better than the best offense in the league) with Kawhi on the court and a 112 ORTG (slightly below league average) without him, showcasing Leonard's ability to be a great offensive floor raiser on top of the phenomenal offensive ceiling raiser we know him to be.
Kawhi Leonard has definitely lost some defensive juice over the past three years, due to a loss in lateral quickness due to the injuries. Nevertheless, Leonard remains one of the best on-ball defenders in basketball with the ability to contain anybody except a few quick shifty guards. Leonard has also put on some weight during his time in LA, which slightly hurts his ability to guard down, but tremendously helps his ability to guard up, making him a highly switchable wing. Leonard also improved as a help defender and his long arms and gigantic hands allow him to be a solid weakside rim protector, although his motor fluctuates quite a lot on that front. Lastly, Leonard is a great rebounder for a wing, an extremely valuable trait that allows LAC to play their micro-ball lineups for extended stretches without getting killed on the glass. Overall, I view Kawhi Leonard as a solid all-defensive wing, but no longer the GOAT wing defender level he was on in 2017.
3. Kevin Durant
Coming off an Achilles rupture, I was concerned that Kevin Durant will never be able to return to the offensive level he was at in Golden State. Not only is he back to that level, but he might be even better. Durant did see a 4% decline in the percentage of field goals at the rim, but he just substituted that with godly shooting from mid-range and three. During the RS, Durant averaged 29.7 points/25 on +10.2 rTS%. He continued his prolific scoring in the playoffs, averaging 31.7 points/75 on +6 rTS%. Durant's scoring attack was also heavily off-ball with Harden and Kyrie in the lineup, making it reliable and retainable even while sharing the floor with a ball-dominant creator such as Harden. He also improved upon his playmaking this season, creating an estimate of 12.3 shots for teammates per 100 possessions. Including the RS and PS, the Brooklyn Nets with Kevin Durant on the floor had a 122.4 ORTG (the greatest raw offense in NBA history), showcasing Durant's all-time offensive ceiling raising. Factoring in scalability, Durant grades out as a top 5 offensive player in my estimation.
For the entirety of the regular season, I was pretty confident that Durant was a negative defender. He couldn't stay in front of anyone, he was inactive as a help defender and he didn't provide the rim protection he once did with the Warriors. However, in the postseason he clearly kicked it into another gear, showing signs of a good help-side and average man defender. Durant grades out as a neutral to slightly positive in my estimation.
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo
The reigning Finals MVP comes in at #2 on my list. Giannis once again had a dominant regular season in every way imaginable. During the RS, Giannis averaged 30 points/75 on +6.1 rTS%. However, the thing that changed this year was that Giannis was able to uphold that scoring volume and efficiency throughout the playoffs, averaging 29.5 points/75 on +3 rTS%. Giannis significantly modified his offensive approach this postseason, trading in top of the key isolations for post-ups and PNR possessions as the screener, and it paid huge dividends for the Bucks overall offense. This change in his scoring attack also made Antetokounmpo's offensive game more scalable, making it easier to imagine him alongside an elite PNR creator. Giannis also improved as a playmaker, creating 11.8 shots for his teammates per 100. Teams in the past, like the 2019 Toronto Raptors, took advantage of Giannis's scoring blindness at times to deploy opportunity doubles and force him into turnovers. Antetokounmpo saw the floor better this season and was less prone to leaving his feet without a decision in mind or missing open players that were in his peripheral vision.
Although his offense was very good, Giannis's defense was the real game-changer during the Bucks championship run. The Giannis at center lineup gave the Bucks a super versatile defense that was capable of switching 1 through 5, whilst still maintaining elite rim protection because of the brilliance of Giannis. The Bucks recorded a 105.9 DRTG with Giannis on the court in the playoffs, a defense 7.4 points better than league average, and one of the greatest postseason defenses of all time. Giannis's positional versatility and elite rim protection is package that comfortably makes him a top 3 defender in the NBA.
Tier 1
1. Stephen Curry
This brings me to my number 1, all in a tier by himself, Wardell Stephen Curry. Steph Curry reminded us once again that he is the best offensive player alive and it isn't particularly close. Curry had an all-time scoring regular season, averaging 32.3 points/75 on +8.8 rTS%. The most impressive part of it was that he did this in 29th percentile spacing, meaning that he had significantly less room to operate than even the median spaced lineups in the league, making him the best scorer in the league in my opinion. Curry was also a fantastic playmaker, creating an estimated 13.8 shots for teammates per 100. Although, I believe this stat actually undersells his playmaking talent by quite a bit. Curry has an unorthodox brand of playmaking where he generates open shots for his teammates by moving off-ball and using his scoring gravity to open teammates up for backdoor cuts, etc, and that just isn't able to be captured in an estimation model. But judging by the fact that the Warriors had a 115.3 ORTG (10th best in the league) with Steph on and a 104.2 ORTG (the worst in the last 4 years) with Steph off, I would rate Steph Curry as a top 3 playmaker as well.
The special thing about Steph is that he is perhaps the most scalable offensive weapon in NBA history, Steph is constantly moving off-ball and relocating, meaning that his all-world scoring isn't reliant on a heavy amount of touches and can retain a majority of its value alongside multiple isolation heavy stars. Another unique thing about Steph is that his playmaking can hold value alongside other ball-dominant teammates better than anyone in history because the bulk of Steph's playmaking talent isn't centered around on-ball passing chops, he can still provide good-great playmaking without ever holding the ball.
Curry's defense isn't really a needle mover in either direction for me. He is an average man defender and his weaknesses can be easily hidden in an average defensive framework. He isn't the ballhawk he used to be in the earlier part of the decade, but he is still solid in passing lanes. Overall, I grade Curry's defense neutral, maybe a slight positive, which is good enough for his historically great offense to push him to #1 on my list.
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