Even though it feels like it was yesterday when the 2020 NBA season concluded and the Los Angeles Lakers were crowned champions, the start of the 2021 NBA season is just around the corner. Meaning that it's that time of year where media members and NBA fans begin to make their NBA award predictions for the upcoming season and see how the pan out as the season progresses. So, here are my pre-season predictions for the major NBA awards for this upcoming season.
Most Valuable Player - Luka Doncic
Giannis Antetokounmpo has had a stronghold on the MVP award for the past two seasons, and rightfully so. There is a real argument that Antetokounmpo is the best offensive and the best defensive player in the league during the course of the regular-season. Last season, Giannis led the league in every advanced stat imaginable and recorded the highest player efficiency in the history of basketball. So, why is he not my clear choice to three-peat as the MVP of the the league? Honestly speaking, I truly believe that Giannis will be the best player in the league throughout the regular-season, but I also believe that voter fatigue will prove to be a huge factor in this years MVP race. I expect this year's MVP race to closely resemble the MVP race of a decade prior. Throughout the 2011 NBA season, it was evident that LeBron James was the best regular-season player in the league, however due to him being awarded the MVP for each of the prior two seasons and his shortcomings in the playoffs, Derrick Rose became the youngest MVP in NBA history. I believe that this season will see a similar outcome, and a new player will be awarded the crown of the youngest MVP in NBA history.
After Luka Doncic's rookie season, a season which saw him average 21.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and 6 assists, the consensus around the league was that Luka Doncic was the future of the league. Well, it appears as though the future might have arrived sooner than expected.
Last season, Luka Doncic had the best season for any 20 year old in the history of basketball, averaging 28.8 points, 9.4 rebounds and 8.8 assists, all whilst directing the statistically best offense in NBA history. The combination of these feats resulted in Doncic ranking fourth in MVP voting for the 2020 NBA season, but prior to his injury Doncic was consistently considered a top 3 candidate for the MVP award. The crazy part is that Luka ranked this high in MVP voting despite his Dallas Mavericks only being the 7th seed in the western conference. To put that into perspective, over the last decade, only one player (Russell Westbrook in 2016) has won league MVP without leading their team to a top 3 seed in their respective conference. This upcoming season, the Dallas Mavericks should make a significant leap in that department due to teams like the Thunder entering a rebuilding phase, the roster improving with new additions of Josh Richardson, Josh Green, and Tyrell Terry, and Luka hopefully remaining healthy.
Luka Doncic has already solidified himself as a superstar in the league at the young age of 21 and is already at forefront in the line for the next face of the NBA following LeBron's retirement. If voter fatigue plays as significant a role in this year's MVP race as it has historically played and Luka is even able to replicate his numbers from the 2020 NBA season, there is no doubt in my mind that this regular season will end with Luka Doncic being crowned the new youngest MVP in league history.
Runner Up : Giannis Antetokounmpo
Rookie of the Year : Obi Toppin
Before I begin my rationale for this prediction, it is important to note that the ROY award is not an indication of whom I believe will be the best player from this draft class. I strongly believe that LaMelo Ball's gifted passing ability was the most special trait of any player in this year's draft and it will lead him to be the best player in this draft. However, due to a lack off opportunity, he might not even start, and his still raw shooting form, I believe that he will not win ROY this season.
Obi Toppin will win this award because he is the most NBA ready player in this year's draft. Obi Toppin was a four-year college player at Dayton and his more experienced than a majority of these one-and-done prospects. Obi Toppin was also the best player in college basketball last season, averaging 20 points and 7.5 rebounds on 69% true shooting , and being named the NCAA player of the year.
Another factor that I believe might play into Toppin's favour is the lack of opportunity for his fellow draftees. The first overall pick, Anthony Edwards, will be playing third fiddle to Karl -Anthony Towns and D'Angelo Russell. The second overall pick, James Wiseman, will have to share the spotlight with Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins. Who on the New York Knicks roster is going to challenge Obi Toppin for minutes? There is a real chance that Obi Toppin comes in as the best offensive player on the Knicks and I think that it is probable that he leads the team in scoring.
With that kind of opportunity, Toppin will be in prime position to put up all the stats in the world, which will most likely result in him winning Rookie of the Year.
Runner Up : James Wiseman
Most Improved Player : OG Anunoby
The Most Improved Player award is always one of the hardest awards to predict because the whole premise of the award relies on someone making an unexpected jump and making a bigger impact than expected. So, essentially any prediction for this award is a stab in the dark.
My stab in the dark for this year is going to be Toronto Raptors forward OG Anunoby. OG Anunoby is already an excellent player on the defensive end of the floor. In fact, I would go as far as to say that Anunoby is the best isolation defender in basketball, despite him being criminally snubbed from the All-Defensive teams. OG Anunoby's true defensive impact was seen in the Raptor's second round battle against the Celtics, where coach Nick Nurse made Anunoby defend quick guards like Kemba Walker, talented wings like Jayson Tatum ,and even centers like Daniel Theis, and saw him have success in all those matchups.
So, Anunoby's growth will mostly have to come at the offensive end of the floor. Anunoby has always had good offensive tools due to his insane jumping ability and good shooting, but there was a lack of shot creation and we saw promising advancements in that area in the NBA Bubble. The clear improvement in Anunoby's game throughout the NBA Bubble was his handle. Ever since Anunoby entered the league, he looked extremely uncomfortable handling the basketball and when he did handle the ball it seemed unnatural. However, that seemed to change in the bubble, where Anunoby showcased improved ability to attack the basket using his dribble as a viable weapon.
Anunoby's improvement in his offensive skillset has seemed to take another jump heading into next season. In the Raptor's first preseason game, OG recorded 11 points in only 18 minutes, whilst showing off his improved handle in the form of this sweet behind the back.
Anunoby averaged a modest 10.6 points last year and with the departure of Serge Ibaka and the aging of Kyle Lowry, there will be plenty of offensive opportunity for Anunoby if he is up for the challenge. And if he is up to the challenge, I see no reason why he can't put together a season that resembles the season that his teammate Pascal Siakam had when he won most improved player award in 2019.
Runner Up : Michael Porter Jr.
Defensive Player of the Year : Anthony Davis
The DPOY award has been awarded to a frontcourt player every since Gary Payton won the award in 1995. In fact, the award is often awarded to a big man because defensive metrics show us that a big man with rim-protecting capability is far more impactful than a strong perimeter defender. That is the primary reason why I find it extremely confusing why voters can only put one center on the All-Defensive teams. Nonetheless, I expect another big man to win DPOY this year in the form of Anthony Davis.
Anthony Davis has been an elite defender ever since he stepped foot on a NBA court. Coming out of Kentucky, Anthony Davis was primarily viewed as an elite defensive prospect. He intrigued NBA scouts because he was able to protect the rim at an elite level and showcased some ability to switch onto perimeter players and keep them at bay, and that alone was enough for him to be selected with the first overall pick in the 2012 NBA draft.
Anthony Davis also proved to be an elite defender at the highest level, leading the league in blocks on 3 different occasions and making the NBA All-Defensive team on 4 different occasions. I actually had some doubts about Davis's effort on the defensive end of the floor in his final year in New Orleans, but all those doubts were completely erased the moment he put on a Lakers jersey.
Anthony Davis was an elite defender last year, averaging 2.4 blocks and finishing second in DPOY voting. Davis's defensive value was further emphasized in the playoffs, where Davis anchored the Lakers elite playoff defense, the primary reason they won the championship. When Anthony Davis played center, it was almost impossible to score against the Lakers. Davis also showed his defensive versatility by guarding and shutting down Russell Westbrook in the second round.
Anthony Davis finished second only behind Giannis Antetokounmpo in DPOY voting, and if voter fatigue has even the slightest impact, I believe that Davis can close that gap and win DPOY.
Runner Up : Giannis Antetokounmpo
Sixth Man of the Year : Lou Williams
The NBA Sixth Man of the Year is one of my biggest issues with the NBA award criteria because it is rarely awarded to the best bench player in the league. The award can be most accurately described as the "highest scorer off the bench" award because that's effectively what it has been reduced to. The award is rarely given to someone who is defensive oriented, even if their defensive value is more impactful than any offensive value created by another bench player. Instead the award is handed out to scoring oriented players like Lou Williams and Jamal Crawford.
The fact that the award is flawed became especially evident in last year's playoffs when the 2020 Sixth Man of the Year, Montrezl Harrell, proved to be so bad on defense that coach Doc Rivers had to pull him out of the rotation. Think about that, the "best bench player in the league" couldn't even make a 9-man rotation on his own team.
Nevertheless, the award is what it is and so my pick for the award will be Lou Williams. Lou Williams was a solid contributor off of the bench for the Clippers last season, averaging 18.2 points and finishing third in 6MOY voting behind his former teammate Montrezl Harrell and Dennis Schroder. Now that Harrell and Schroder are teammates on the Lakers, they will most likely take away scoring opportunities from each other, which will therefore reduce their stats.
On the other hand, with the departure of Harrell, Lou Williams will most likely be elevated to the third scoring option on the Clippers, which will most likely result in him averaging close to 20 points per game and winning Sixth Man of the Year as a result of it.
Runner Up : Norman Powell
댓글